Donald Trump

Entiende lo que quiero decir, no lo que estoy diciendo.

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Por Jaime Atria, escrito el 9 de octubre de 2016, un mes antes de las elecciones de Estados Unidos.


Las elecciones presidenciales de Estado Unidos a estas alturas ya están resueltas.

Ganó quien ganó a pesar de los debates, las campañas y las encuestas.

Y a pesar de los “memes”, burlas, descalificaciones, augurios y las redes sociales.

Muchos estarán reflexionando acerca de la certeza o incerteza de todos los pronósticos dados por las distintas encuestadoras  internacionales.

Y habrán vivido el triunfo o la derrota de sus vaticinios dejando atrás los papelones  sufridos con los fallidos augurios del Brexit  en Inglaterra y de las Farc en Colombia.

Pero independiente de cualquier análisis, ¿Qué ha estado pasando el último tiempo con las encuestas y su credibilidad?  ¿Por qué la presidenta puede declarar con cierto humor e ironía que en todas partes se encuentra con el 15% de apoyo  y que 85% de rechazo brilla por su ausencia? ¿Por qué siempre la intención de voto es superior a la votación efectiva?

Hace muchísimo tiempo que hemos identificado que la respuesta a estas preguntas  es que los encuestados dicen una cosa y hacen otra. Quizás llegó el momento en que las empresas de investigación de mercado cambien sus métodos y se hagan cargo de esta contradicción. De que aprendan a “traducir” las respuestas y no simplemente tabularlas. De que la forma de plantear las preguntas no incluya una respuesta preestablecida.  De que entiendan lo que el consumidor quiere decir y no lo que está diciendo.

Si uno analiza las redes sociales y las reacciones de la gente a temas como la discriminación,  la alimentación, el transporte, el feminismo, los animales, y la ecología, puede concluir que la mayoría de la gente no discrimina entre los bonitos y los feos, que más de la mitad de las personas son veganas o vegetarianas, que todos andamos en bicicleta, que nos da lo mismo si una mujer tiene bigote o pesa más de 120 kilos,  que recogemos a los pobres animalitos abandonados, y que después de un evento masivo retiramos nuestras latas de cerveza en una bolsa desechable.

Quizás debemos entender que hay respuestas impopulares que no vamos a dar,  a riesgo de parecer inhumanos, frívolos, irresponsables o discriminadores. Hay respuestas que son un autoatentado en todo orden de cosas. Y que es preferible callar y mantener fuera de las redes sociales y las encuestas. ¿Quién puede hoy reconocer abiertamente que está de acuerdo con una represa, o con las AFP, o con la castración de lo perros vagos, o con el lucro en la educación, o con que la inmigración es un problema, o que le gustan las mujeres delgadas y que usan tacones? ¿Quién puede reconocer abiertamente que votó por Donald Trump? ¿Quién puede declarar sin riesgo a ser destruido en las redes sociales que está en contra de la legalización de la marihuana o el aborto?

Hay gente, demasiada gente, que no está de acuerdo con muchos de los fundamentalismos de la era moderna y que simplemente calla o responde la respuesta deseada.  Escuchando a las personas y basándose en los comentarios, memes y descalificaciones en  Facebook, twitter  o instagram, pareciera ser que menos de un 10 % de la gente es de derecha. Pero al momento de votar ese porcentaje aumenta a casi el 50%.

Claramente el mundo cambió. Y si quienes tienen a cargo las investigaciones de mercado y otras formas de evaluar  el comportamiento humano, las tendencias y el proceso mental de la gente no hace un profundo análisis de lo que está ocurriendo en la sociedad, de lo que la gente declara y comparte y lo que prefiere callar, papelones como el vaticinio del fracaso del Brexit se van a repetir cada vez con mayor margen y frecuencia. Y la credibilidad del research que hoy es la brújula de la mayoría de los gerentes comerciales y políticos para medir tendencias, gustos, participación de mercado, proyecciones y todo lo que reemplaza al instinto y al sentido común terminará por caer a cero, aunque las encuestas indiquen lo contrario.  

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